African Airlines Sustain Recovery with 7.3% Passenger Growth in October 2025

African airlines demonstrated significant momentum in October 2025, recording a robust 7.3 percent year-over-year increase in passenger demand. Data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on November 28 indicated that African carriers expanded their capacity by 5.3 percent during the same period, achieving a passenger load factor of 74.1 percent, a 1.4 percentage point improvement compared to October 2024. This performance underscores the continent's aviation sector's ongoing recovery trajectory, even as it represents a modest 2.2 percent of the global air passenger market.

Globally, October proved to be a strong month for air travel, with overall passenger demand rising 6.6 percent and total capacity increasing by 5.8 percent year-over-year. Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, highlighted notable improvements, particularly in North American international traffic growth. Other regions also saw strong gains, with Asia Pacific airlines achieving a 10.9 percent demand increase and Middle Eastern carriers recording 10.7 percent growth. European and Latin American carriers also posted solid demand increases of 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively. Domestic passenger markets worldwide saw revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) rise 3.4 percent, with Brazil's domestic market standing out with 12.4 percent growth.

The positive October results for African aviation build upon consistent growth observed throughout 2025, driven by significant infrastructure development and route expansion initiatives. The Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), an African Union initiative aimed at liberalizing air transport, now includes 38 signatory countries and is projected to boost intra-African passenger traffic by 51 percent while reducing airfares by 26 percent upon full implementation. Major carriers like Ethiopian Airlines are actively expanding their pan-African networks, with Ethiopia also planning Africa's largest airport by 2029. IATA forecasts an average annual growth of 4.1 percent for African airlines over the next two decades, with passenger demand expected to reach 400 million by 2035, a substantial leap from 80 million in 2019.

Despite these promising growth trajectories, African airlines face several challenges. Limited aircraft availability, high operational costs, and supply chain constraints continue to hinder faster expansion. Regulatory complexities across diverse national environments also impact operational flexibility and market access, although efforts to increase visa-free intra-African routes are progressing. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to further stimulate demand for air passenger services by simplifying the movement of people and goods, reinforcing the long-term potential for sustained growth in the continent's aviation sector.