Aircraft Supply Chain Bottlenecks May Delay New Indian Airlines' Launch for Years

Former Boeing senior vice president for sales, Dinesh Keskar, has warned that new carriers entering the Indian domestic aviation market will face significant delays in starting operations. The primary reason is the global aircraft supply chain crisis and the limited availability of aircraft.

Keskar shared his insights during a Leadership Talk at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Nagpur. He stated that although the government has granted approval to new airlines launch plans, commercial operations may take several years to begin.

Global Aircraft Supply Constraints

The core challenge lies in the massive aircraft order backlog at major manufacturers. Global aircraft makers have orders booked until 2032. A new order placed with Boeing today could take approximately six years for delivery.

Industry data confirms this structural problem. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports a record-high order backlog of over 17,000 aircraft. This number is nearly 60% of the active global fleet. The current backlog is equivalent to almost 12 years of production at present rates. This mismatch between airline demand and production is not expected to normalize before 2031–2034.

• The global delivery shortfall is at least 5,300 aircraft.
• Airlines face higher leasing costs and reduced scheduling flexibility.
• The ongoing supply issues also slow down the industry's sustainability goals.

Impact on New Indian Carriers

The Indian government recently granted No-Objection Certificates (NOCs) to new carriers, including Al Hind Air and FlyExpress. This action followed IndiGo operational disruptions in late 2025. The crisis was linked to new pilot duty-time limits. It also highlighted the growing dominance of IndiGo in the market.

Keskar voiced concern over the dominance of a single company. He noted that a monopoly in any sector inevitably creates problems. While new entrants are approved, securing aircraft remains a major bottleneck. For example, Al Hind Air plans to use ATR turboprop aircraft.

Domestic Manufacturing Challenges

Keskar also addressed the feasibility of aircraft manufacturing India. He stated that domestic aircraft production is currently not practicable. The biggest hurdle is the skilled manpower shortage.

Government approvals and infrastructure are not enough. Highly-skilled engineers and technicians are difficult to find. This challenge explains why Boeing maintains only two aircraft manufacturing facilities globally, both in the United States.

India's government is pushing for indigenous aircraft development. Initiatives like the Saras Mk2 and a Special Purpose Vehicle are underway. However, industry experts suggest it could take 10 to 15 years to build significant capabilities.

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