Avolon Predicts Airbus, Boeing Will Launch New Aircraft Programs by 2027
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Aircraft lessor Avolon forecasts a 2027 launch window for new commercial aircraft programs, driven by capacity shortages and sustained airline profitability; the Airbus A220-500, A350-2000, and Boeing 777-10X are top contenders.
Key Takeaways
- •Avolon forecasts 2027 as the realistic launch window for new commercial aircraft programs, citing sustained airline profitability and capacity shortages.
- •Three major concepts are frontrunners: the Airbus A220-500, the Airbus A350-2000, and the conceptual Boeing 777-10X.
- •The push is driven by multi-year order backlogs and market gaps in both the single-aisle (A321neo competition) and high-capacity widebody segments.
- •The 2027 timing is influenced by ongoing supply chain issues and the delayed entry-into-service of the Boeing 777-9.
Global aircraft lessor Avolon anticipates a new commercial aircraft programs launch by Airbus and Boeing in 2027. This forecast is part of Avolon’s latest industry outlook report. The company sees 2027 as a realistic window for a formal program launch. This timing is a direct response to sustained airline profitability. It also addresses long-term commercial aviation capacity shortage issues.
Frontrunners for Aircraft Program Launch 2027
Avolon identified three specific aircraft concepts as the most likely frontrunners. These proposed models target critical market gaps for both single-aisle and widebody jets.
- Airbus A220-500: This proposed stretch of the popular A220 family would address the 150-170 seat segment. It would offer airlines a larger, more efficient narrowbody option.
- Airbus A350-2000: This A350-2000 stretch variant would be a larger version of the A350-1000. It aims to seat up to 450 passengers, competing directly with the Boeing 777X.
- Boeing 777-10X: This conceptual jet is a further stretch of the 777-9. It would accommodate around 450 passengers, targeting the high-capacity long-haul twinjet segment.
Market Dynamics Driving New Programs
The pressure on manufacturers stems from a structural undersupply of new aircraft. Aircraft order backlogs at both Airbus and Boeing now extend beyond 11 years. This effectively sells out production capacity well into the next decade.
Single-Aisle Market Gap
The single-aisle segment shows a clear market imbalance. Airbus’s A321neo has significantly outsold the Boeing 737 MAX 10. The potential Airbus A220-500 would further pressure Boeing’s offering. It would fill a gap between the A220-300 and the A320neo.
Widebody Aircraft Competition
In the widebody space, the competition is for the largest twin-engine jet. The proposed Boeing 777-10X is a response to the need for high-capacity aircraft. This is especially true at slot-constrained international airports. The A350-2000 is Airbus's strategic counter-move.
Furthermore, the current 777-9's entry into service (EIS) has been delayed. The first 777-9 deliveries are now expected in early 2027. This delay impacts airline fleet planning strategy.
Challenges and Industry Impact
The 2027 timeline acknowledges current industry challenges. Supply chain constraints and certification pressures make a 2026 launch unlikely. The 777X program has already faced numerous delays and billions in charges.
- Opportunities for Airlines: New programs offer improved fuel efficiency and lower operating costs. They also provide the necessary capacity for growing international routes.
- Risk of Delay: Any new program launch is subject to significant development and regulatory risk. The FAA’s increased scrutiny on new designs is a major factor.
- Lessor Strategy: Lessors like Avolon find delivery slots increasingly strategic. They are key for airlines with limited direct access to manufacturers.
The Avolon 2027 outlook suggests manufacturers must act soon. They need to address the structural aircraft deficit. The launch of these new variants would reshape the global aviation landscape. It would offer airlines the tools needed for future growth.
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Written by Ujjwal Sukhwani
Aviation News Editor & Industry Analyst delivering clear coverage for a worldwide audience. Covers flight operations, safety regulations, and market trends with expert analysis.
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