Can Archer Aviation (ACHR) Stock Soar in 1 Year Amid eVTOL Certification Race?

The electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector remains a high-risk, high-reward area of commercial aviation news. Archer Aviation stock (ACHR) reflects this uncertainty. The company went public in September 2021 at $9.90 per share. It now trades near $8, showing investor skepticism after early promises.

Archer, like many SPAC-backed firms, initially set ambitious targets. It claimed it would produce 650 eVTOLs by 2027. Yet in 2024, the company delivered only one test aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. It generated no meaningful revenue and reported a net loss of $537 million.

However, Archer holds an indicative backlog of $6 billion. This order book is for approximately 1,200 aircraft. This suggests a clear path to future revenue. The critical question for the ACHR 1-year forecast is simple: Can Archer deliver on its promises in the next 12 months?

Regulatory Roadblocks and Competition

Archer's path to commercialization is heavily dependent on regulatory approval. The company's Midnight eVTOL must receive four separate certifications from the FAA. Archer has secured three operational certificates. These include the Part 135 Air Carrier and Part 145 Repair certificates. The final hurdles are the Type Certification and Production Certification.

Type Certification is the most complex step. It involves final airworthiness criteria, compliance checks, and flight tests. Archer has cleared the final airworthiness criteria phase. It is now moving into the compliance and testing phase. However, analysts do not expect final Type Certification until 2028.

The Joby Aviation Competition

Archer faces stiff competition, mainly from Joby Aviation (JOBY). Joby is considered the leader in the eVTOL FAA certification race. Joby is estimated to be about one year ahead of Archer. It has entered the final Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) phase. This head start allows Joby to define the regulatory reference case. This is crucial for the emerging urban air mobility market.

International regulatory progress is also slow. Archer's first air taxi flights were planned for Abu Dhabi in late 2025. These flights have been deferred to 2026. This delay allows U.A.E. regulators to further evaluate eVTOL safety.

Production and Financial Reality

Scaling up Midnight eVTOL production is another major challenge. Archer relies on its top investor, Stellantis, for contract manufacturing. This Stellantis partnership is advancing slower than anticipated. As of late 2025, Archer had only manufactured two commercial eVTOLs. Six more were in the production line.

Archer aims to produce 650 aircraft annually by 2030. This is a significant scale-up from current numbers. The company is aligning its production certificate with its Type Certification. This will allow immediate manufacturing ramp-up once the aircraft is approved.

Financial Headwinds

Despite the challenges, Archer maintains a strong cash position. It had $1.6 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of the third quarter of 2025. Some reports indicate liquidity over $2 billion entering 2026. This capital is vital to fund continued testing and production. However, high cash burn is expected to continue. Net loss is projected to widen to $718 million in 2026.

Archer's valuation remains a concern for investors. With a market capitalization of $6.5 billion, the company is valued highly. It trades at 21 times its projected 2027 sales. Some reports put its valuation at 85 times next year's sales. This high price-to-sales ratio limits stock upside potential. Significant operational progress is needed to justify this valuation.

Catalysts and Outlook for Air Taxi Services

Several catalysts could boost Archer's stock in the next year. The most important is achieving initial revenue. Analysts expect Archer to generate $32 million in revenue in 2026. This income would likely come from early deployments. Potential sources include Middle East launch deals or defense contracts.

Major customers like United Airlines and Abu Dhabi Aviation plan to use the Midnight. Archer's Midnight has already conducted international test flights. These flights were near Abu Dhabi's Al Ain Airport. Launching air taxi services abroad would validate the technology. This would be a crucial step toward commercial viability.

The global eVTOL market is forecasted for rapid expansion. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 50% through 2033. North America remains the largest market. The FAA is supporting the industry. Its eVTOL Integration Pilot Program may speed up testing.

In conclusion, Archer's stock outlook for the next year is mixed. The company has a massive order backlog and sufficient cash. It is also making steady progress on operational certifications. However, the stock is highly valued based on future sales. The timeline for Type Certification remains a major risk. Archer must show tangible progress in Midnight eVTOL production and secure its first revenue in 2026. Without these milestones, the stock may struggle to move significantly higher. For more insights into the electric aviation sector, visit our source for commercial aviation news and analysis. The future of flight, including advanced air mobility, is constantly evolving. Manufacturers like Airbus are also watching this space.