Can IndiGo and Air India Handle India's Explosive Aviation Growth Hurdles?

Commercial aviation in India began in October 1932. J.R.D. Tata flew a Puss Moth with mail from Karachi to Bombay.

Over 90 years later, the national fleet is about 800 aircraft.

Indian airlines aim to double this fleet size by 2033.

Daily domestic passengers should reach 1 million by 2033.

However, 2025 was a difficult year for the sector.

It saw an Air India Dreamliner crash that killed 260 people.

Thousands of IndiGo flights were cancelled in December.

This was due to new crew-rostering rule failures.

Opinion is split on the industry's future path.

Experts question if the current duopoly can manage this growth.

IndiGo and Air India hold over 90 per cent of the market.

Explosive Growth Meets Structural Issues

Kapil Kaul of Capa India called recent events manifestations of structural issues.

He urged the system to assess all gaps.

This includes regulatory, policy, and physical infrastructure.

A major concern is the shortage of technical manpower.

This includes pilots, engineers, and air traffic controllers (ATCOs).

Former minister Suresh Prabhu advocated for an integrated regulator.

This new body would look beyond mere safety.

It would also focus on passenger interests.

Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu is strengthening the DGCA's tariff-monitoring unit.

This aims to prevent opportunistic pricing during high demand.

The Profitless Growth Paradox

The Indian commercial aviation sector has struggled to make money.

Capa estimates the industry lost $22 billion since 2004.

Kaul argues that India is a very difficult market for profit.

This leads to a profitless growth strategy.

Real average airfares have decreased substantially since 2011.

Domestic fares are about 79 per cent of 2011 levels.

International fares are about 62 per cent of 2011 levels.

Industry pundits say 60-70 per cent of passengers fly below cost.

High operating costs exacerbate this issue.

Fuel taxes are about 25 per cent of the total cost.

Engine maintenance costs are double the world average.

Pollution forces engine overhauls every 3.5 years in India.

This compares to seven years globally, raising operational expenditure (opex).

Manpower and Viability Hurdles

High demand and fleet expansion require huge staff increases.

The IATA estimates a need for 37,000 pilots.

They also project a need for 38,000 maintenance technicians.

Airbus projects India will need 41,000 pilots and 47,000 technical workers.

Air India and IndiGo need 16,800 pilots over the next decade.

Over 15 airlines registered in India have failed in two decades.

Mark Martin, CEO of Martin Consulting, urges the government to ensure a third viable airline.

He suggests fiscal incentives for large industry houses.

Airline failures also highlight issues with aircraft repossession laws.

Lessors struggled to reclaim aircraft in a timely manner.

This makes India seem like a risky jurisdiction for leasing business.

Kaul, however, sees no proof the India airline duopoly harms consumers.

He believes the massive aircraft orders will drive intense competition.

Others suggest a government-regulated price band.

This would protect both consumers and airline profitability. Read more commercial aviation news at flying.flights.