Is Joby Aviation the Smartest Investment You Can Make Today?

November 17, 2025 at 09:20 AM•2 min read•Leo Sun

Joby Aviation, an early mover in the eVTOL market, faces scrutiny as analysts assess its valuation relative to projected revenue, despite backing from investors like Toyota and Delta Air Lines.

Key Points

1Joby Aviation is developing the S4 eVTOL aircraft for urban air mobility.
2The company has partnerships with Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber.
3Joby holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense.
4Commercial success depends on FAA approval and scaling up air taxi services.
5Analysts project significant revenue growth but the company faces valuation concerns.
6Potential stock dilution and insider selling activity raise caution.

Joby Aviation (JOBY), a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, aims to revolutionize urban air mobility with its S4 aircraft, boasting a longer range and higher speed compared to competitors like Archer Aviation's Midnight. The company's strategic partnerships with Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber, through the acquisition of Uber Elevate, position it to integrate eVTOL flights into existing ride-hailing platforms. Joby also holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to supply eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force.

Despite a substantial backlog of $17.4 billion, Joby's commercial success hinges on securing FAA approval for its first commercial flights and scaling up air taxi services, potentially launching in Dubai by 2026. To meet anticipated demand, Joby is expanding production capacity at its California plant and establishing a new facility in Ohio for propeller blade manufacturing. Analysts project significant revenue growth from 2024 to 2027, driven by the expanding eVTOL market.

However, Joby's current market capitalization of $14.9 billion reflects a high valuation relative to its projected sales for 2027, raising concerns about profitability and potential stock dilution. The company's reliance on secondary offerings and stock-based compensation could further dilute shareholder value. Recent insider selling activity adds to the cautious sentiment surrounding the stock.

While Joby holds promise as a speculative play in the nascent eVTOL market, its high valuation and dependence on regulatory approvals and successful commercialization warrant careful consideration. Investors should weigh the potential for explosive growth against the risks associated with profitability, dilution, and market competition. The company's success depends on its ability to execute its ambitious plans and navigate the evolving regulatory landscape of the eVTOL industry.

Ultimately, Joby's long-term prospects depend on its ability to secure regulatory approvals, scale production, and establish a viable business model in the competitive eVTOL market. While the company's technological advantages and strategic partnerships offer a strong foundation, its high valuation and potential for dilution present significant challenges for investors.