Russian Intel Claims France Plans African 'Revenge' After Sahel Losses.

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) recently alleged France is actively plotting "neocolonial coups" across Africa. The SVR claims Paris seeks political revenge for losing influence in former colonies. This includes the Sahel nations of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These countries have all severed ties with France and expelled French troops.

According to the SVR statement, French President Emmanuel Macron authorized a plan. This plan allegedly allows special services to "eliminate 'undesirable leaders'" in African states. The Russian agency also accused France of involvement in a failed coup in Burkina Faso. This January 3 plot allegedly aimed to assassinate military leader Ibrahim Traore.

Aviation Security and Regional Instability

The SVR report follows a major security incident in West Africa. Niger's military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, recently accused France of sponsoring an attack. This attack targeted the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey. The assault occurred on January 29, 2026, at the airport and adjacent Air Base 101.

During the attack, gunmen fired indiscriminately at civilian aircraft. This included three civilian aircraft, two operated by the airline ASKY. The incident highlights the extreme Sahel aviation security risks. While General Tchiani blamed France, other reports suggest the Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) was responsible.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment

Geopolitical tensions directly impact the region's air travel. The allegations of French plots and Russian SVR intelligence claims worsen the security environment. Airlines must consider West African air routes for safety. Instability in the Sahel region forces carriers to re-evaluate flight paths. This is done to avoid conflict zones and potential threats.

Increased security risks lead to higher operational costs. This includes insurance premiums and security surcharges. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) monitors such threats globally. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) often issues warnings. These warnings advise airlines on flying over or near conflict areas. Such warnings can cause regional air travel disruption for both cargo and passenger flights.

Regional carriers like ASKY are particularly vulnerable. Damage to their aircraft impacts fleet availability. This can affect their ability to serve West African routes. Major manufacturers like Airbus also track regional stability. Instability can affect future aircraft orders and deliveries. The ongoing tension between France and the military governments creates a volatile climate. France has not responded to the latest SVR allegations. However, Paris previously denied supporting Islamist groups in the Sahel.

This climate of international security implications requires vigilance. Aviation stakeholders must prioritize crew and passenger safety. They must also manage the risk of further destabilization. The use of drones by militants, as alleged by the SVR, adds a new threat layer. This requires updated airport and airspace security protocols.

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