Why Did Ryanair Raise Its Full-Year Passenger Outlook and Fare Forecast?

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, Ryanair, has raised its financial outlook. The airline now expects higher passenger traffic growth for the full year 2026. This positive revision is due to strong booking demand. It also credits earlier than expected Boeing aircraft deliveries.

Updated Financial Forecast

Ryanair now forecasts carrying almost 208 million passengers. This is an increase from its previous guidance of 207 million. This new figure represents a 4% year-on-year traffic growth. The airline also projects a stronger increase in average air fares. Fares are now expected to rise by up to 9% for the full year. This is higher than the 7% increase previously forecast.

The carrier provided a new full-year underlying profit after tax guidance. It is “cautiously guiding” for profits between €2.13 billion and €2.23 billion. This reflects confidence in sustained high travel demand.

Q3 Earnings and Exceptional Charges

Despite the positive full-year outlook, third-quarter (Q3) results were impacted. Reported profit slumped by a significant 80% to €30 million. This drop was due to an exceptional charge related to a regulatory fine. The Italian competition fine (AGCM) was levied at €256 million. Ryanair booked an €85 million provision for this charge. The airline has labeled the fine as “baseless” and plans to appeal. Excluding this one-off charge, Q3 profit after tax was €115 million. This figure was still 22% lower than the prior year’s Q3 profit. Passenger numbers for the quarter rose 6% to 47.5 million. Average fares in Q3 increased by 4% to €44.

Fleet and Capacity Drivers

Earlier Boeing aircraft deliveries are a key factor in the revised outlook. Boeing expedited the delivery of 25 737 MAX 8-200 aircraft. These planes were delivered earlier than the original spring schedule. More aircraft allow the airline to add capacity to its network. This capacity helps meet the current strong demand for air travel.

• The earlier deliveries provide Ryanair with a competitive advantage.
• It allows the European low-cost carrier to grow while rivals face aviation capacity constraints.
• The additional aircraft support the increased passenger traffic growth forecast.
• However, the Italian competition fine presents a financial risk pending appeal.

Ryanair's ability to secure early aircraft deliveries is crucial. It allows the airline to maintain its low-cost structure. This strategy supports its aggressive growth targets for the decade. Strong forward bookings for peak seasons also underpin the guidance.

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