Why the Kenya Airways grounded fleet exposes a deep aviation supply chain crisis.

Kenya Airways (KQ) is facing severe financial turbulence. This comes after a brief period of historic profitability. The national carrier issued a profit warning in November 2025. Earnings for the year are expected to drop by over 25%. This downturn follows a net profit of KShs 5.4 billion in 2024. That 2024 result was the airline’s first full-year profit in 11 years.

Grounded Fleet and Supply Chain Crisis

The primary cause is a global spare parts shortage. This crisis has led to a major Kenya Airways fleet grounding. Three of the nine Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners are currently grounded. This represents one-third of KQ's wide-body fleet. These aircraft are vital for long-haul routes. The groundings are due to delays in engine overhaul. Specifically, the General Electric GEnx-1B70 engines lack critical parts.

This aviation supply chain crisis is an industry-wide issue. Aircraft sent for routine maintenance are taking longer to return. KQ's operational strain is compounded by these aircraft maintenance delays. Liquidity issues make it harder for KQ to fast-track engine production.

Financial and Operational Impact

The KQ profit warning 2025 was a direct result of this crisis. The half-year 2025 results showed a KES 12.1 billion net loss. This loss wiped out the previous year's half-year profit. The groundings reduced capacity by an estimated 20%. Passenger numbers fell by 14% in the first half of 2025. This led to a 19% decline in revenue for the period.

KQ has adjusted its network to match aircraft availability. However, this means increased flight cancellations and delays. The Nairobi-Mombasa route has seen 20 weekly flight reductions.

Internal Challenges and Leasing Scrutiny

Beyond global issues, the airline faces internal challenges. Insiders report that grounded aircraft are targets for theft and vandalism. Corrupt employees allegedly steal parts from parked planes. These parts are then passed off as new, imported items. A KQ director stated that taking parts from grounded aircraft is an acceptable industry practice. This is known as 'cannibalization' in the industry. However, the scale of reported theft suggests a deeper corruption issue.

Management decisions also face scrutiny. There are questions about a new lease for Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. Insiders question paying high rates for older jets. Market rates for new and used MAX jets are reportedly lower. Experts suggest funds should go to overhauling the existing fleet. KQ is also led by a new foreign CEO, Captain Kamal. This change follows the departure of Allan Kilavuka.

Broader Economic Consequences

The turbulence at KQ impacts the Kenyan economy greatly. Flower farmers faced a 20% shortfall in exports last year. This was due to a lack of available cargo capacity. Kenya’s floriculture sector is worth US$1.1 billion.

KQ's history includes decades of financial distress and state bailouts. Cumulative government support is documented at over KShs 98 billion. This pattern of public rescue continues amid the current crisis.

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• Three of nine Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners are grounded due to engine spare parts shortages.
• The groundings caused a 20% capacity cut and a KES 12.1 billion net loss in the first half of 2025.
• KQ issued a profit warning, forecasting a drop of at least 25% in 2025 earnings compared to 2024.
• The crisis is exacerbated by reported internal theft and controversial new aircraft lease deals.