Airbus Nears Potential 120-Jet Order from China Amid State Visit

Airbus is poised to secure a significant aircraft order from China, potentially totaling up to 120 jets. The announcement, which emerged during a German state visit, underscores the European manufacturer's strengthening position in one of the world's most critical and fastest-growing aviation markets.

A deal of this magnitude would provide a substantial boost to Airbus's backlog and solidify its market leadership in mainland China. For Chinese airlines, it represents a necessary fleet expansion to meet surging domestic and international travel demand, which has consistently surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The potential order also highlights the intricate link between international diplomacy and large-scale commercial aircraft sales, a common feature of Sino-European trade relations.

Market Context and Airbus's Position

Airbus has established a commanding presence in China. According to company data, Airbus holds over 55% of the commercial aircraft market share in mainland China, with more than 2,200 of its aircraft currently in service. This market dominance is the result of a long-term industrial strategy, notably the establishment of a Final Assembly Line in Tianjin. This facility, which produces the Airbus A320 New Engine Option (A320neo) family, has been crucial in building relationships and a local supply chain.

While the specific models in the potential 120-aircraft deal have not been disclosed, it is likely to include a mix of narrow-body and wide-body aircraft. The A320neo and its larger variant, the Airbus A321 New Engine Option (A321neo), are expected to form the bulk of the order, catering to the high-density domestic market. Wide-body aircraft, such as the Airbus A330 New Engine Option (A330neo) or the Airbus A350 Extra Wide Body (A350 XWB), could also be included to support the expansion of long-haul international routes by Chinese carriers.

China's Air Travel Trajectory

The potential order comes as China's aviation sector transitions from a sharp post-pandemic rebound to a phase of sustained, stable growth. Data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) shows that domestic air passenger traffic reached 690.45 million in 2025, building on a record high of over 700 million passenger trips recorded in 2024. This robust demand is driving fleet expansion across all major Chinese airlines.

According to the VariFlight 2025 Development Report, Chinese mainland airlines operated 5.37 million flights in 2025, a 2.96% increase from the previous year. This consistent year-over-year growth aligns with long-term industry forecasts. Projections indicate that China is on track to become the world's largest aviation services market by 2043 and will require an estimated 9,570 new aircraft over the next two decades to meet demand. This sustained need for new, more efficient aircraft makes China a pivotal battleground for manufacturers Airbus and Boeing.

Geopolitical and Industrial Factors

The announcement of the potential order was attributed to German politician Friedrich Merz during a state visit. "The Chinese leadership will be ordering a larger number of additional aircraft from Airbus. The total order will include up to 120 additional aircraft," Merz stated. While such announcements are often timed to coincide with high-level diplomatic missions to serve as economic deliverables, confirmation from Airbus and the Chinese government is still pending.

This development further cements Airbus's lead over its American rival Boeing in the crucial Chinese market. Boeing has faced challenges in China, including lingering trade tensions and scrutiny over its production. In contrast, Airbus's deep industrial partnerships in the country have provided it with a significant competitive advantage. The finalization of this order would not only fill production slots for years to come but also send a strong signal about the enduring strength of Sino-European aviation ties.

Why This Matters

This potential deal is more than a line item in an order book; it's a strategic move that reinforces Airbus's dominance in the world's most important future aviation market. It underscores how industrial cooperation and diplomacy can directly translate into major commercial victories. For the global aviation industry, it signals continued, aggressive fleet expansion by Chinese carriers and further tilts the competitive landscape in the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.

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