Boeing 737 MAX Production Targets Overshadow Expected Financial Loss?

The upcoming Boeing Q4 earnings report is expected to show a loss. Wall Street analysts expect a loss of around $0.39 per share for the fourth quarter. However, investors are looking past this financial metric. The market is focused on the planemaker’s ability to increase Boeing 737 MAX production.

Boeing's operational recovery is the central narrative. The company must demonstrate sustained improvements in manufacturing. This is key to achieving positive free cash flow targets for the coming year.

Production and Delivery Targets

Federal regulators have approved a key production increase. The FAA cleared Boeing in October 2025 to raise output. The new rate is 42 737 MAX jets per month. This is an increase from the previous cap of 38 aircraft. That cap was imposed after the January 2024 Alaska Airlines door-plug incident. The higher rate is seen as achievable due to existing inventory. Boeing is prioritizing production stability and quality over speed. Management has indicated future adjustments will happen every six months. The company is also planning to raise the 787 Dreamliner rate. This signals confidence in meeting robust aircraft delivery targets.

Strategic Business Shifts

Boeing has made significant corporate moves to strengthen its position. The company completed the Spirit AeroSystems acquisition in late 2025. This move gives Boeing more control over its primary supplier. It aims to enhance quality control across the production lines. Boeing also finalized the Jeppesen sale of its Digital Aviation Solutions business. This all-cash transaction was valued at $10.55 billion. The sale helps strengthen the balance sheet and focuses the company on core operations. Furthermore, the defense side secured the U.S. F-47 fighter contract. This provides a positive boost to the overall commercial aviation outlook.

• Key Corporate Developments in 2025:
  • FAA approval to raise 737 MAX production to 42/month.
  • Acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems.
  • Sale of Jeppesen and other digital assets for $10.55 billion.
  • Outpaced Airbus in new orders for the year.

Certification Hurdles Remain

Despite the positive momentum, challenges persist. Certification for the smallest 737 MAX variants, the MAX 7 and MAX 10, is still pending. The widebody 777X program continues to face delays. The 777X is reportedly six years behind schedule. It is now expected to enter service in 2027. These delays impact airline fleet planning and global capacity.

Investor Confidence and Outlook

Wall Street analysts show strong confidence in Boeing (BA). Twenty-four of 29 analysts surveyed recommend a 'buy' rating. The stock has recovered significantly since the 2024 accident. This reflects a belief in Boeing's long-term recovery trajectory. The market is prioritizing future free cash flow generation. This cash flow relies directly on higher, stable 737 MAX production rates.

For in-depth airline coverage and commercial aviation news, flying.flights delivers timely industry insights.