Can Archer Aviation's Midnight eVTOL Achieve Commercial Flight in 2026?

Commercial aviation has seen little fundamental design change in decades. Jets and helicopters still rely on mid-20th-century propulsion concepts. However, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft are poised for disruption. These small, battery-powered aircraft are mechanically simple and relatively quiet. They promise to revolutionize Urban Air Mobility (UAM), potentially creating a trillion-dollar market by 2040. J.P. Morgan analysts estimate this opportunity could be worth a whopping $1 trillion by that time, as reported. This new technology could replace ground-based taxis on key high-traffic routes.

Archer Aviation is an early mover in this space. The company's strategy is ambitious: it aims to be both a leading manufacturer and a service provider. Archer is pursuing a vertical integration strategy to secure large customer deals and expand its market.

The Race for FAA Certification 2026

The most critical hurdle for Archer Aviation remains regulatory approval. The company is working to secure FAA certification 2026 for its Midnight eVTOL aircraft design and components. The FAA has already finalized the airworthiness criteria for the Midnight, a key regulatory step. Full certification is still pending, but the regulatory path is becoming clearer.

In late 2025, Archer partnered with cities across five U.S. states to submit applications. These were for the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). The eIPP is a public-private partnership led by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and the FAA. The program aims to accelerate the safe introduction of air taxis into urban environments. The FAA is expected to announce selections for the eIPP in early to mid-2026. Early operational activity is anticipated to begin later in 2026. Archer is projecting that commercial service for the Midnight will begin in late 2026.

• Archer is the Official Air Taxi Provider for the 2028 LA Olympic Games.
• The company also secured a role for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Los Angeles.

Manufacturing and Global Partnerships

Archer's manufacturing plan is supported by a significant automotive partnership. The company is working with Stellantis to build a large manufacturing facility in Covington, Georgia. This facility, known as ARC, received its certificate of occupancy in late 2024. Production is planned to begin in early 2025, leveraging Stellantis's manufacturing expertise. The goal is to scale production to 650 Midnight aircraft annually by 2030.

Beyond the U.S., Archer has secured major international deals. The joint venture Soracle, formed with Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation, intends to purchase up to 100 Midnight aircraft. This deal is valued at approximately $500 million. Such agreements are vital for building an economic moat and scaling up manufacturing.

Financial Outlook for Archer Aviation Stock

Despite strong partnerships and regulatory progress, Archer Aviation stock faces financial challenges. The company is currently pre-revenue, generating essentially no income. It burned through about $175 million in the third quarter of 2025, mainly due to research and development spending. With $595 million in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, the company will likely need to raise more capital. This could lead to equity dilution, which can undermine long-term shareholder returns.

However, the company's CEO has stated that Archer expects to report its first revenue in the first quarter of 2026. This initial revenue is likely to come from Middle East deals or powertrain supply agreements, not yet from passenger air taxi operations. The successful launch of air taxi trials under the White House program in 2026 could be a major catalyst. Investors should note that success hinges on achieving the FAA certification 2026 milestone. Until then, the electric vertical takeoff and landing industry remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition.