Is Archer Aviation's Midnight eVTOL Worth a $500 Investment Today?
Key Points
- 1Morgan Stanley forecasts the low-altitude/eVTOL market could be worth $9 trillion by 2050, driving interest in Archer Aviation stock (ACHR).
- 2Archer's Midnight eVTOL aircraft has received final FAA airworthiness criteria and a Part 135 operator certificate, but full aircraft Type Certification is still pending.
- 3The company is applying for the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) to launch air taxi trials in major U.S. cities as early as 2026.
- 4Investment in Archer remains highly speculative due to the lengthy FAA certification process, capital burn rate, and unproven consumer demand for air taxi services.
The commercial aviation world is changing fast. A new type of aircraft is emerging: the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle. California-based start-up Archer Aviation is a key player in this space. They are developing the four-passenger Midnight eVTOL aircraft for use as an air taxi service. The potential for this market is huge. Investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates the total low-altitude market could reach $9 trillion by 2050. This massive forecast makes Archer Aviation stock (ACHR) look like a strong opportunity. However, the company is still pre-revenue, making any investment highly speculative today.
The Path to Commercialization
Archer Aviation is on a path toward launching its air taxi service. The company has already achieved key regulatory milestones. In May 2024, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued the final airworthiness criteria for the Midnight aircraft. This is a crucial step in the FAA certification process. Archer is now the second eVTOL manufacturer to reach this point.
- Archer also holds the Part 135 Air Carrier & Operator Certificate.
- This certificate allows them to operate commercial flights.
- The aircraft itself must first receive Type Certification.
- Full certification is targeted for 2025, but commercial launches are expected later.
Regulatory Acceleration and Trials
Government support is helping to accelerate the timeline. The White House launched the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). This program aims to speed up the deployment of eVTOL operations. Archer is partnering with U.S. cities to apply for the eIPP. This could allow the company to begin initial air taxi trials as early as 2026. These trials would occur ahead of full FAA Type Certification. Archer has submitted applications for cities in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and New York. The FAA is expected to announce the selected pilot projects in mid-2026.
Investment Risks and Market Unknowns
Despite the positive regulatory progress, the ACHR investment remains high-risk. The unknowns currently outweigh the givens. The FAA has notoriously strict safety standards. The Advanced Air Mobility sector is new, requiring a special class certification process. This process is long and difficult. As of mid-2025, Archer had only received approval for about 15% of its compliance verification documents.
The biggest risks for investors are:
- Certification Delays: The FAA timeline for a new aircraft type is unpredictable.
- Market Demand: Will consumers pay the price for air taxi services?
- Infrastructure: Vertiport and charging infrastructure must be built.
While the Morgan Stanley forecast of a $9 trillion market is compelling, it is a long-term view. The near-term reality is that Archer is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash to fund development and certification. The global eVTOL market is projected to reach $87.6 billion by 2026. This shows strong growth potential, but the company must first achieve commercial scale. For more analysis on the evolving sector, visit our commercial aviation news section [flying.flights]. A small $500 investment in Archer is essentially a highly speculative aviation investment on a distant future.
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