Can ASEAN Fuel Aviation's Future? 8.5 Million BPD SAF Potential by 2050

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is poised to become a global powerhouse in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production market, according to a landmark industry report. The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report, released on January 23, 2026, projects that the region's economies could generate up to 8.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of SAF by 2050. This massive potential supply is seen as crucial for global aviation decarbonization efforts.

This production forecast significantly outpaces the region's own projected demand. The report indicates that internal SAF demand within ASEAN is expected to rise sharply. It is forecast to grow from approximately 15,000 bpd in 2030 to over 700,000 bpd by 2050.

Feedstock Advantage and Supply Chains

ASEAN's strong potential is rooted in its abundant and diverse SAF feedstock potential. The region possesses a strong comparative advantage in sustainable bio-feedstocks. Key feedstocks identified in the report include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.

Five nations show the most abundant feedstock for Sustainable Aviation Fuel production. These countries are Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The report suggests that all examined ASEAN countries could become net SAF exporters. This would establish Southeast Asia SAF supply as a major global source.

• Primary Export Hubs: Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines may offer the most cost-efficient distribution. These hubs would supply key import markets. These markets include Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.
• Largest Regional Demand: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand are expected to be the largest SAF demand centers within ASEAN.

Technology and Economic Challenges

Despite the enormous potential, significant hurdles remain for the region. The primary challenge is the levelized cost of SAF production.

Cost and Technology Barriers

The most common SAF production method today is Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA). This pathway currently costs about twice as much as conventional jet fuel. Alternative production methods are even more expensive. Technologies like alcohol-to-jet can cost four to seven times more than fossil fuels. However, these cost gaps are expected to reduce as technologies mature and production scales up.

Another opportunity is the integration of SAF production into existing petroleum refineries. Retrofitting these facilities could reduce capital expenditures by 20%. This could lower overall levelized costs by 10%.

Impact on Global Aviation

The aviation industry requires approximately 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF by 2050. This is necessary to achieve its net-zero CO₂ emissions goal. Global SAF production was estimated at just 2 Mt in 2025. The potential 8.5 million barrels per day from ASEAN represents a significant portion of the global requirement. This scale highlights the region's critical role in the industry's energy transition.

The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook was developed by GHD Group. Boeing served as the knowledge partner for the report. The study supports the work of the ASEAN Secretariat. The findings reinforce the need for a coordinated regional strategy. Stakeholders are calling for an 'ASEAN SAF Alliance'. This alliance would help harmonize frameworks and scale up production capacity.

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