China's 2026 Spring Festival Travel Hits 5 Billion Trips at Midpoint

China's 2026 Spring Festival travel rush has surpassed 5.08 billion inter-regional passenger trips in its first 20 days, according to data released by the Ministry of Transport (MOT). The period, often called 'Chunyun,' represents the world's largest annual human migration and shows a significant surge in domestic mobility, with total volume on track to set new records.

The halfway point data, covering the period up to February 21, underscores the immense scale of travel surrounding the Lunar New Year holiday. This year's 40-day travel season runs from February 2 to March 13 and is expected to see unprecedented passenger volumes across all transportation sectors, reflecting a complete recovery and expansion of domestic travel demand.

Record-Breaking Travel Volume

Official forecasts from China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) project a record 9.5 billion inter-regional passenger trips over the full 40-day Chunyun period. This figure represents a historic high, significantly surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to Li Chunlin, deputy head of the NDRC, both the overall scale and peak daily traffic are expected to exceed historical levels.

The MOT reported that on February 20 alone, the 19th day of the travel season, cross-regional passenger traffic reached a single-day record of 352.999 million trips. In the first week of the travel rush, from February 2-8, more than 1.4 billion inter-regional passenger trips were recorded, signaling strong momentum from the outset.

Aviation Sector Performance

The civil aviation sector is playing a critical role in managing the surge in long-distance travel. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) anticipates an average of 19,400 flights per day during the travel rush. Overall, the NDRC projects the aviation sector will handle approximately 95 million passenger trips over the 40 days. In the first week alone, civil aviation passenger trips exceeded 16 million, according to the MOT.

Xu Qing, director of the transport department of the CAAC, noted that civil aviation travel is set to grow steadily. Key travel patterns include a high demand for winter tourism in northern regions and trips to warmer southern destinations. To meet this demand, major carriers have significantly increased capacity. China Southern and China Eastern planned to operate over 126,000 and 125,000 flights, respectively. Notably, China Eastern Airlines has also deployed its fleet of 14 domestically produced C919 jets to serve popular routes during the peak season.

Dominance of Self-Driving Travel

A defining trend of the 2026 Chunyun is the overwhelming preference for personal vehicles. The NDRC estimates that self-driving trips will account for about 80% of total travel, or approximately 7.6 billion of the 9.5 billion projected trips. This reflects a major structural shift in domestic mobility, favoring the flexibility and perceived safety of private car travel over public transport for many families.

While private cars dominate, public transportation systems are also under immense pressure. The national railway system is projected to handle 540 million passengers during the 40-day period, according to the NDRC. This highlights the multi-modal nature of the travel rush, requiring coordinated efforts across road, rail, and air networks to manage the flow of hundreds of millions of travelers.

Official Forecasts and Context

The comprehensive forecasts were detailed during a press conference held by China's State Council Information Office. Officials from the NDRC, MOT, and CAAC presented a coordinated outlook, emphasizing readiness and measures to ensure safety and efficiency during the peak travel period. The official government briefing on the 2026 travel rush provides detailed projections for each transport sector.

The extended holiday period has also fueled the travel boom. While the official public holiday in 2026 was nine days, the entire Chunyun period spans 40 days, allowing for more staggered travel and boosting domestic tourism and consumption across the country.

Why This Matters

The record-breaking figures from the 2026 Chunyun signal the robust health of China's domestic travel market and its critical role in the national economy. The data also highlights a significant long-term shift in mobility patterns, with private vehicle travel now constituting the vast majority of trips. For the aviation industry, the period serves as a crucial test of operational capacity and a key driver of annual revenue, while for the government, it represents a massive annual logistical challenge for its entire transportation infrastructure.

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