Is Aviation's Net Zero Goal at Risk After Airbus Hydrogen Delay and SAF Supply

The global commitment to net zero emissions is facing strong headwinds. From finance to retail, many industries are now watering down their climate pledges. This broader net zero retreat is creating a difficult operating environment for commercial aviation news and its ambitious 2050 goal. The aviation sector, a hard-to-abate industry, faces unique technological and supply challenges. IATA and ICAO maintain the 2050 ICAO 2050 target. However, recent developments in fuel supply and next-generation aircraft technology suggest the pathway is narrowing.

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Supply Crisis

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) supply is the primary solution for decarbonizing aviation. Yet, production remains critically low. IATA projects IATA SAF production 2025 to reach 2 million tonnes (Mt). This volume is roughly double 2024 production. However, it represents only 0.7% of the industry’s total jet fuel consumption needs.

• The slow pace of SAF adoption is a critical dampener.
• Higher costs are a major obstacle for airlines.
• In Europe, SAF mandates have made the fuel up to five times more costly.

This low supply and high price premium challenge the economic viability of the transition. Airlines need supportive policies, not just mandates, to scale up supply.

The Airbus Hydrogen Delay and Technology Setbacks

Technological progress, especially for long-haul flight, is also stalling. Airbus has announced a significant Airbus hydrogen delay for its zero-emission aircraft. The flagship ZEROe program had targeted entry-into-service by 2035. This timeline is now reportedly pushed back to the late 2040s.

This delay is due to slow development of the necessary hydrogen ecosystem. This includes production, distribution, and airport infrastructure. The European aviation industry's roadmap reflects this setback. It has downgraded hydrogen's expected contribution to 2050 emission cuts from 20% to just 6%.

Meanwhile, both Airbus and Boeing confirm their next major aircraft will still use kerosene-based gas turbine engines. This reinforces the industry's near-term reliance on SAF and operational efficiency improvements.

Policy Friction: Growth vs. Climate

Regulatory and political signals are adding complexity to the aviation net zero goal. In the UK, the government has backed major UK airport expansion plans. This includes projects at London Gatwick Airport, London Luton Airport, and a third runway at London Heathrow Airport.

MPs on the Environmental Audit Committee warned this approach is risky. They stated it puts the UK’s 2050 target in “serious jeopardy.” The government’s Jet Zero Strategy relies heavily on future, unproven commercial-scale technology. Critics argue this strategy lacks a serious plan to manage demand or ensure sufficient SAF is available.

Outlook for Commercial Aviation Stakeholders

For airlines, the slow pace of progress means decarbonizing aviation will be more costly. The focus shifts to operational efficiency and securing long-term SAF agreements. For manufacturers, the hydrogen delay means continued investment in current-generation, SAF-compatible aircraft. Airports face increasing scrutiny over expansion plans. They must demonstrate how growth aligns with national and international climate commitments.

Key Risks for the Aviation Sector:

• Higher Operating Costs: Low SAF supply drives up prices, increasing airline fuel bills.
• Regulatory Fragmentation: Unilateral mandates, like in Europe, can increase costs without boosting supply.
• Missed Targets: Without a rapid scale-up in SAF, the ICAO 2050 target becomes increasingly difficult to meet.

Despite the challenges, the global commitment from IATA remains firm. The industry must now convert its aspirational goals into credible, scalable actions. This requires massive investment and coordinated government support for SAF production and infrastructure development. For the latest flight operation news, stakeholders must monitor these policy and supply developments closely. text