Nigerian Domestic Air Traffic Faces 2026 Shift as Feeder Airports Gain Ground

Aviation experts in Nigeria are raising concerns. They predict a possible disruption in Nigerian domestic air traffic in 2026. This shift comes ahead of the country's 2027 general election.

Amos Akpan, Managing Director of Flights and Logistics Solutions Limited, analyzed the Nigeria aviation outlook 2026. He noted that passenger numbers at major airports will likely not increase. These hubs include Lagos, Abuja, Kano, and Port Harcourt. This stagnation is due to the high domestic airfares Nigeria is currently experiencing.

Shifting Passenger Traffic

Akpan’s analysis suggests a lack of significant increment in passenger traffic at major hubs. This is directly linked to the high cost of domestic flight tickets. Disposable income limits the ability of many people to afford current prices. However, a different trend is expected at secondary facilities.

Feeder airports are projected to see a rise in passenger numbers. These include Owerri, Uyo, Enugu, Asaba, Benin, and others. This growth is anticipated because 2026 is a political campaign year. Politicians will travel extensively for rallies and campaigns.

Feeder Airport Passenger Growth

Data from the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) supports this view. FAAN data shows a drop in passenger figures for the major airports. Conversely, the same data indicates a slight rise for feeder airports. These include Owerri, Uyo, Benin, Akure, Asaba, Yola, Maiduguri, Bauchi, and Kaduna.

Overall, the Nigerian domestic market is shrinking. FAAN statistics show domestic passenger traffic declined by 13.6% between 2022 and 2024. This loss represents nearly two million passengers in three years.

Akpan also pointed to capacity additions from state governments. Some states are acquiring aircraft and building airports. This aims to support air travel in and out of their regions. These secondary cities are expected to have more flight frequencies in 2026.

Cost Factors and Policy Challenges

Airfares are not expected to drop significantly in 2026. There are no indicators that will reduce the cost of operations. New tax laws and policies are compounding cost factors. For example, the push for aviation agencies to be revenue generation centers is a concern.

Aviation policy cost factors remain a threat to airlines. High working capital funding rates and multiple taxes persist. New tax reforms, effective in 2026, are highly debated. Government officials argue the reforms will help by removing the 10% Withholding Tax on aircraft leases. However, airline operators warn that the reintroduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) on aircraft parts will drive up costs. Some executives warn that ticket prices could climb above ₦1 million.

Africa remains the least profitable region globally for airlines. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates African carriers will generate only $1.3 net profit per passenger in 2026. This is far below the global average. IATA attributes this to high operating costs and heavy taxation.

Industry Hopes and Infrastructure

Industry stakeholder Olu Fidel Ohunayo, Executive Secretary of Aviation Round Table (ART), called for improvements. He wants government regulation separated from commercial airline operations. Ohunayo also stressed the need for better airport infrastructure.

He hopes major airports like Lagos and Abuja will gain transit facilities. This would allow Nigerian carriers to use them as effective international hubs. Ohunayo noted that other regions may follow the North East's plan. This plan involves establishing a regional airline. He expects to see more Nigerian airline consolidation in 2026.

Akpan expressed hope for international expansion. He hopes Air Peace will increase frequencies to Dubai and London Heathrow. This expansion would be through partnerships with other international airlines. He also hopes investors will partner with local Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities. This would allow more component repairs to happen domestically.

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