Ryanair Warns of 9% Fare Hike as Strong Bookings Push Price Outlook Higher.

Europe's biggest budget airline, Ryanair, has signaled a significant increase in ticket prices.

The carrier now expects full-year fares to rise by up to 9%. This is higher than the 7% increase forecast back in November. Strong travel demand and solid forward bookings are driving this revised Ryanair fare outlook.

Financial Performance and Passenger Growth

Ryanair's latest trading update confirmed strong performance through the holiday season. Passenger numbers for the three months to December rose 6%, reaching 47.5 million passengers. Average fares saw a 4% increase, climbing to €44. Total revenue for the quarter increased by 9% to €3.21 billion.

This growth was fueled by busy periods like the October half-term and Christmas travel. As a result, the airline has increased its annual Ryanair passenger targets. It now expects to carry almost 208 million passengers over the year. This is a 4% increase over the previous year.

Fleet Expansion and Capacity Constraints

Looking ahead, Ryanair is sticking to its ambitious long-term plan. It aims to reach 300 million passengers annually by 2034. Key to this growth is the massive order for 300 Boeing 737 Max 10 aircraft.

Chief executive Michael O'Leary comments suggest confidence in the delivery schedule. He told analysts the first 15 planes are now likely to arrive "early rather than late" in spring 2027. This is notable given recent production challenges at Boeing. Boeing expects the MAX 10 certification during the summer of 2026.

The new aircraft is crucial for the budget airline growth strategy. The MAX 10 is more fuel efficient and has 21% more seats than the current 737 Next Generation planes. Increased capacity is essential for managing Ryanair ticket prices in the long term.

Market and Operational Context

Ryanair has recently made headlines outside of its airline financial results. O’Leary recently dismissed using Starlink technology for in-flight Wi-Fi. This public exchange with Elon Musk reportedly led to a small bump in bookings.

The airline has also focused on operational efficiency. It confirmed increased bonuses for ground staff enforcing strict cabin baggage rules. This effort is part of a strategy to keep flights on schedule.

European short-haul capacity is expected to remain constrained until at least 2030. This constraint is due to large backlogs and delivery delays from major manufacturers. Ryanair's strong financial position and cost control widen the cost gap with competitors.

• Impact on Travelers: The revised Ryanair fare outlook means cheaper seats will be harder to find.
• Industry Trend: The price hikes reflect sustained strong travel demand across Europe.
• Risk Management: Ryanair is using fuel hedging to offset rising costs, but the profit guidance remains exposed to external geopolitical risks.

Industry experts suggest capacity constraints will continue to support high fares across the sector, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

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