TotalEnergies CEO Predicts EU Will Revise Challenging SAF Mandates

French oil major TotalEnergies' CEO, Patrick Pouyanné, has publicly predicted the European Union will be forced to revise its Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandates. The prediction was made at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Pouyanné suggested the EU regulation revision would mirror the bloc's recent rollback on a ban for new combustion-engine cars. The primary drivers for this predicted change are strong airline opposition and the significantly higher SAF cost premium compared to traditional jet fuel.

The ReFuelEU Aviation Mandate

The EU's ambitious climate policy, ReFuelEU Aviation, sets binding targets for SAF use. The regulation requires a minimum share of SAF at EU airports. This mandate begins at 2% in 2025.

It then makes a significant jump to 6% by 2030. The long-term goal is to reach 70% SAF use by 2050.

Pouyanné noted that the rapid increase from 2% to 6% by 2030 is causing "a panic." He stated that all major airline companies are fighting the 2030 target.

High Costs and Supply Challenges

The main barrier to widespread adoption is the cost of SAF. Sustainable Aviation Fuel can cost between two and seven times more than conventional jet fuel. In mandated markets, this premium can be up to four or five times higher.

This high cost translates into a substantial financial burden for carriers. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the SAF premium to add approximately $4.5 billion to airline fuel bills in 2026.

Airline groups, such as Airlines for Europe (A4E), have repeatedly called the 2030 targets unachievable. They cite insufficient supply from fuel producers.

• SAF Production: Global SAF output is expected to be only 2.4 million metric tons in 2026.
• Market Share: This volume represents just 0.8% of total global jet fuel consumption.
• Industry View: IATA's Director General has criticized the mandates. He stated they have failed to boost supply and instead increased compliance costs.

Policy Uncertainty and Investment Risk

Pouyanné drew a direct comparison to a recent EU policy shift. The European Commission recently removed its requirement for a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars by 2035. This was replaced with a 90% reduction target.

He predicted that "what happened to the car regulation will happen to the SAF regulation in Europe."

The CEO warned that policy uncertainty affects investment decisions. TotalEnergies (TotalEnergies) is a major producer of clean fuels. Pouyanné indicated the company would reduce planned investments in new biorefineries. This is due to the fear that if the EU SAF mandates are moved, the investment would be wasted.

This policy debate highlights a key conflict in aviation decarbonisation. The industry must meet ambitious climate goals. However, it must also manage the economic realities of high-cost, low-supply alternative fuels. The European Union (EASA) faces pressure to balance environmental targets with industry competitiveness.

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