Why does Airbus believe India's airlines will triple their fleet size?

India's rapid economic growth is fueling a dramatic expansion of the country's aviation sector. Airbus predicts that Indian carriers will triple the size of their fleets over the next decade. This forecast was released during India's biennial civil aviation air show.

The European planemaker expects Indian carriers to operate about 2,250 aircraft over the next 10 years. This massive fleet growth is driven by rising incomes and a growing middle class. The swelling ranks of first-time flyers fuel expansion in the world's fastest-growing domestic aviation market.

The Battle for Market Share

India is already the world's third-largest domestic aviation market. It follows only the United States and China in size. The market is led by major carriers like IndiGo and Air India.

Industry forecasts are closely watched as airlines plan massive fleet additions. A day before the Airbus announcement, rival Boeing released its own outlook. The Boeing aircraft forecast 2044 suggests airlines in India and South Asia will need nearly 3,300 new aircraft. This underscores the region's importance as a key battleground for global planemakers.

Boeing projects that passenger traffic will grow at an average rate of 7% annually over the next two decades. Airbus, meanwhile, expects passenger traffic growth of about 8.9% annually over the next decade.

Underpenetration and Long-Term Potential

Despite the current growth, India's aviation sector remains largely underpenetrated aviation sector. Trips per capita stand at just 0.13. This figure is well below levels seen in comparable regions.

Jürgen Westermeier, Airbus president and managing director for India and South Asia, highlighted this low base. He noted that this leaves a lot of room for more people to start flying. This points to significant long-term growth potential as infrastructure improves.

Indian carriers have placed some of the industry's largest jet orders recently. These orders focus on aircraft orders rapid fleet expansion. This contrasts with the replacement-driven purchases typical of mature aviation markets.

Trade Agreements and Service Demand

Airbus also anticipates benefits from new trade policy. The landmark India–European Union trade agreement was recently concluded. This agreement is expected to lower trade barriers.

Certain aerospace services will benefit from the reduction in tariffs. The FTA aims to eliminate tariffs on aircraft and spacecraft, which were previously up to 11%. This will help integrate Indian businesses into European value chains.

The massive Airbus India fleet growth also creates a demand for personnel. Airbus estimates India will need 35,000 pilots by 2035. Additionally, about 34,000 technicians will be required. Boeing's forecast is even higher, projecting a need for 45,000 pilots, 45,000 technicians, and 51,000 cabin crew over two decades. This highlights a major workforce challenge for the region.

Stay ahead of the airline industry with commercial aviation news from flying.flights.

Track policy changes, airspace rules, and global aviation governance in the Regulatory category at flying.flights/regulatory.