Why IATA says European Union's sustainable fuel goals are "not achievable."

Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has stated that the European Union's ambitious Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) targets are "not achievable."

Speaking at a recent industry event, Walsh pointed to two main obstacles. These are the limited SAF production availability and the high SAF costs for airlines.

The ReFuelEU Aviation Mandate

The European Union SAF goals are set out in the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate. This regulation was adopted in 2023. It aims to accelerate the use of cleaner jet fuel.

The mandate sets a progressive increase in blending obligations for fuel suppliers. The rules require carriers to include 2% SAF in their fuel mix starting in 2025.

This percentage rises significantly over time. The mandate calls for a 6% blend by 2030. It then jumps to a 20% blend by 2035. The ultimate goal is 70% SAF by 2050.

Walsh specifically criticized the 2035 target. He stated that the industry is "way behind" the necessary progress.

Production Shortfalls and High Costs

The core of the airline industry challenges lies in supply. Global SAF production reached 1.9 million tonnes in 2025. This represented only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption. IATA also noted this figure was a downward revision.

European production capacity is especially low. Estimates show current EU capacity at only 0.24 million tonnes. This is just 10% of the volume needed to meet the 2030 mandate.

High SAF costs further complicate the transition. SAF prices are more than double those of conventional jet fuel. In markets with mandatory blending, this price factor can increase up to four times.

Mandates have inadvertently worsened the situation. Walsh argued that mandatory rules have pushed prices higher. This has discouraged voluntary demand from airlines.

Impact on Commercial Aviation Sustainability

SAF is critical for the aviation decarbonization pathway. IATA estimates SAF will provide 65% of the emissions reduction needed for the industry’s net-zero goal by 2050.

However, the current lack of SAF production capacity creates a major risk. It could jeopardize the industry's long-term climate commitments.

• Risk of Fuel Tankering: The EU's ReFuelEU rules try to prevent "fuel tankering." This is where airlines load extra fuel outside the EU. They do this to avoid costly SAF mandates.
• Synthetic Fuel Sub-Quotas: The mandate includes sub-quotas for synthetic fuels (e-SAF). This type of fuel is currently almost non-existent. The 5% e-SAF requirement by 2035 is a major concern for the sector.

The European Commission maintains its position. A spokesman previously stated that the current SAF targets are "realistic and feasible." Despite the challenges, airlines remain committed to cutting emissions. IATA's long-term objective is a 50% cut in pollution by 2050 compared with 2005 levels.

Stay ahead of the airline industry with commercial aviation news from flying.flights. For reporting on UAP sightings, investigations, and aviation-related encounters, see the UAPs section at flying.flights/uaps.