Will a 50% US Tariff Ground Canadian Aircraft Sales?

U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated trade tensions with Canada.

He threatened a 50% tariff on all Canadian-made aircraft sold into the United States. This aggressive move, announced on January 30, 2026, targets the heart of the North American aerospace trade relationship. The threat came via a social media post.

Certification Dispute Triggers Threat

The President tied the tariff threat to a specific certification dispute. He accused Canada of illegally refusing to certify several jets from U.S. planemaker Gulfstream. The jets named were the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 models. Trump claimed Canada was effectively blocking the sale of these American products.

In direct retaliation, the President also threatened to "decertify" Bombardier Global Express jets. He included all aircraft made in Canada in this decertification warning. This action would prevent the planes from operating in U.S. airspace.

Regulatory and Industry Implications

Experts immediately questioned the legality of the decertification threat. Aircraft certification is a technical, safety-driven process. It is traditionally handled by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the U.S.. Tying this safety process to trade disputes sets a dangerous precedent for global aviation regulation.

The threat directly impacts Canadian manufacturer Bombardier. The company is a major player in the global business jet market. Analysts suggest a 50% tariff would effectively price Bombardier out of the U.S. market. The U.S. is the world’s largest private jet market. More than half of Bombardier's global fleet operates within U.S. borders. According to Cirium data, approximately 150 Global Express aircraft are registered in the U.S..

• Risk to U.S. Operators: U.S. airlines operate Bombardier CRJ regional jets. The broad threat of decertification could affect their operations.
• Wider Aerospace Impact: The dispute introduces significant uncertainty into the aerospace supply chain. This industry relies heavily on cross-border stability.
• Historical Context: This new threat echoes a previous trade dispute. In 2017, the U.S. sought a nearly 300% tariff on Bombardier’s CSeries jet. That effort ultimately failed.

Canadian officials acknowledged the situation. They stated they were in contact with the Canadian government and noted their company employs over 3,000 Americans. The resolution hinges on the certification of the Gulfstream jets by Transport Canada. The aviation industry is closely watching the outcome of this high-stakes trade confrontation.

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