Will global supply chain 'weaponisation' slow Asia's aviation growth before Singapore Airshow?

Global aviation leaders met in Singapore. They gathered ahead of the major Singapore Airshow outlook. Executives discussed a tougher path to growth. This is due to persistent aviation supply chain disruptions. Rising geopolitical friction air travel also presents challenges. These discussions occurred at the Changi Aviation Summit. Airline executives and regulators confronted the difficult path.

Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist

Bottlenecks are affecting aircraft manufacturing and maintenance. Industry leaders say capacity remains a drag. The problems are not expected to ease quickly. Airbus and Boeing have struggled with constraints. This has been true since the COVID-19 pandemic. Engine makers like GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney face issues. They must balance new production with fleet maintenance. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted the impact. He said this disruption continues to have a major impact. Walsh called the manufacturing chain the "biggest headache" for airlines. He sees little sign of significant improvement in 2026 or 2027.

Supply issues are a "triple whammy" for carriers. They cap progress on post-pandemic balance sheets. Maintenance capacity constraints drive cost increases. These costs are estimated to exceed $11 billion. Airlines are keeping older aircraft in service longer. This is an attempt to accommodate strong passenger demand. The use of older planes also hurts fuel efficiency. Fuel efficiency was unchanged between 2023 and 2024. This marks a step back from long-term trends. Walsh is challenging the engine makers. He argues their talk of "partnership" is inaccurate.

Geopolitical Friction Reshapes Air Cargo

Geopolitical shifts are forcing industry adjustments. This includes new U.S. import tariffs. These tariffs reshaped global air freight patterns. Walsh said the impact is clear on air cargo. It is less obvious on the passenger side. Data shows a clear shift in global flows. Air cargo volumes between Asia and North America fell. They dropped by 0.8 percent last year. This was the first such decline in some time. This loss of market share is significant. Shipments between Europe and Asia rose significantly. Those volumes increased by 10.3 percent. This shift is driven by tariff pressures. The removal of the US de minimis exemption is a factor.

'Weaponisation' of Dependencies

Concerns over politicization were widely echoed. Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned of growing risks. He cited the "weaponisation" of global supply chains. This creates real issues for future aviation growth. France's aerospace industry issued similar warnings. They noted the vulnerability of cross-border networks. These networks were built over decades of globalization. Aerospace executives cite access to rare earths. These are essential components in jet engines. China dominates global metal supplies. This leaves manufacturers exposed to future shocks.

Aircraft Certification Tensions

The summit also highlighted aircraft certification tensions. This threatens the global framework of aviation rules. These rules operate under the Chicago Convention. ICAO Toshiyuki Onuma remained neutral. He declined comment on specific political demands. This included demands regarding Gulfstream business jets. Onuma stressed ICAO would remain "technically neutral". He said ICAO asks states to rectify violations. This applies if the Chicago Convention is violated. A senior official warned against political pressure. They stated, "There can be no bargaining over certification." Political pressure could undermine safety oversight. Onuma stressed the need for international cooperation. The sector needs to be safer and more competitive.

Asia's Growth and Net-Zero Commitments

Despite challenges, Asia-Pacific remains strong. It is the world's fastest-growing air travel market. Growth is driven mainly by China and India. Passenger traffic is projected to grow 7.3 percent in 2026. Onuma cautioned that this growth needs change. A system for four billion passengers is insufficient. It cannot support three times that number without transformation.

The Net-Zero Challenge

Industry leaders reaffirmed climate commitments. They must accelerate progress toward net-zero carbon emissions 2050. ICAO's long-term goal is net-zero by 2050. This requires coordinated global effort. IATA Willie Walsh warned the net-zero goal is more challenging. The prolonged use of older aircraft is a factor. Shortages of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) also delay transition. IATA's member airlines adopted the 2050 target in 2021. The effort relies heavily on new planes and SAF. Walsh noted that some airlines might reconsider the 2050 goal. The industry needs significant government support. It also needs an energy transition away from fossil fuels. SAF deployment is the most significant opportunity.

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