Will Midnight eVTOL Certification Make Archer Aviation Stock a Buy?

Archer Aviation (ACHR) is working to build a foundation for its long-term success. The company is a key player in the nascent urban air mobility market. However, significant hurdles remain before it can become a sustainably profitable business. The stock's performance reflects this uncertainty. Archer Aviation stock analysis shows it lost over 33% of its value since October 2025. This volatility highlights the high-risk nature of this investment.

Financial Position and Cash Burn

Archer Aviation is currently a pre-revenue startup. Its third-quarter 2025 10-Q filing reported no income. The company's focus is on heavy investment in its future. Research and development costs were nearly $121 million in Q3 2025. General and administrative expenses added another $54 million.

This spending resulted in a net loss of almost $130 million for the quarter. This was an increase from the $115 million loss in the same quarter of 2024. The per-share loss declined only because the number of outstanding shares increased by 66%. This high cash burn is expected for a startup in a capital-intensive industry. Archer will likely continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. This is true even after it begins generating regular revenue. The company does maintain a strong liquidity position, with over $1.6 billion in cash and short-term investments as of September 2025.

Regulatory Progress and Commercial Milestones

The driving force behind the volatile ACHR stock is news flow and investor sentiment. Archer has made steady progress on its regulatory and commercial goals. Its Midnight eVTOL certification process is advancing. The aircraft is designed to carry a pilot and four passengers. It is intended for short trips of around 20 miles.

• International Launch: Archer has a first customer, Abu Dhabi Aviation (ADA), lined up in the UAE. The company is targeting its first commercial customers in Abu Dhabi by late 2026. The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) is fast-tracking certification for Q3 2026. This could make it one of the first eVTOL companies to generate passenger revenue.
• US Certification: In the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has finalized the airworthiness criteria for Midnight. Archer is currently in Stage 4 of compliance testing. However, some analysts do not expect full FAA Type Certification timeline completion until 2028.
• Key Partnerships: Archer has a $6 billion order book, including a major order from United Airlines. It is also the exclusive air taxi partner for the LA28 Olympic Games.

eVTOL Investment Risk

The stock's extreme volatility is a major risk for investors. The recent drawdown was the third such decline in a single year. This high-risk investment is suitable only for the most aggressive investors. The primary risk remains the timing of regulatory approvals. Delays in Midnight eVTOL certification would increase cash burn and the need for further capital raises.

If the air taxi industry "takes off" as expected, it represents a new transportation category. This category could offer years of growth. Waiting for key milestones, like the Abu Dhabi launch or full FAA approval, carries a cost. Investors may miss out on early gains. However, waiting also allows investors to ensure they are backing the eventual industry leader. Archer Aviation is making progress, but the eVTOL investment risk remains high due to strong competition and the uncertain regulatory path.

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