Aviation Veteran Predicts Years of Aircraft Supply Constraint Amid Boeing and Airbus Woes.

Steven Udvar-Hazy, a respected jet-leasing firm chairman, has issued a stark aircraft supply constraint forecast.

He suggests the global shortage of new commercial jets will last for years. This is due to ongoing struggles at planemakers Boeing and Airbus. They are unable to meet their production targets. The constraints force airlines to operate aircraft beyond typical lifespans.

The Leasing Veteran's Warning

Steven Udvar-Hazy, the outgoing non-executive chairman of Air Lease Corporation, is a key figure in the industry. He is considered one of the founders of modern Steven Udvar-Hazy leasing practices. Udvar-Hazy has previously noted significant industrial problems. These issues stem from labor shortages and stretched supply chains. He stated that planemakers had "grossly misjudged" their build capacity. Deliveries were running three to six months late, and this trend was not improving. The current commercial aviation market outlook remains challenging.

Udvar-Hazy's warning highlights a critical imbalance. Demand for new aircraft is at an all-time high. However, the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus cannot deliver quickly enough.

Production and Supply Chain Reality

The Boeing and Airbus production backlogs are nearing 14,000 aircraft. At current production rates, some models face a wait of over a decade. Both manufacturers are working to increase output but face significant hurdles.

• Airbus is projected to achieve 1,044 deliveries in 2026.
• The manufacturer has already lowered its 2026 A220 target due to supply chain issues.
• Boeing is focused on stabilizing its 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner programs.
• The company aims to deliver 500 737s in 2026, a 12% increase from 2025.

Global aircraft delivery delays are compounded by lengthening development cycles for new models. This includes the delayed certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10. The 777-9 program is also running years behind schedule. These factors contribute to the long-term aviation industry challenges.

Impact on the Global Fleet

The delivery delays have a direct impact on airline operations. Operators are forced to airlines operate older aircraft much longer than planned. The average retirement age for a passenger jet is about 23.6 years. However, many older jets are now remaining in service.

Industry data shows the global fleet's average age has risen significantly. It reached a record 14.8 years, up from 13.2 years before the pandemic. This trend is expected to continue as planned aircraft retirements are postponed. The surge in air travel demand further complicates the situation.

Maintenance and Cost Challenges

Keeping older jets flying introduces new risks and challenges for airlines.

• Increased Maintenance: Older aircraft require more frequent and thorough inspections.
• Higher Costs: Age brings wear and tear, leading to higher maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) costs.
• Downtime: Longer ground times for maintenance can disrupt flight schedules and capacity.
• Parts Shortages: Airlines face long waits for engine maintenance and parts, straining budgets.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) data, a significant number of commercial aircraft have been retired over the past 35 years. However, the current backlog means this retirement rate will be complicated. Airlines must carefully balance the cost of maintaining older planes with the expense of delayed new aircraft purchases. The shortage means that older, less fuel-efficient jets remain commercially viable. This creates a major operational and environmental challenge for the industry.

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