Can Joby Aviation's eVTOL Aircraft Revolutionize Air Travel and Deliver 10x Returns?

The commercial aviation industry is closely watching the rise of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Joby Aviation (JOBY), a key developer in this space, is moving toward its goal of launching air taxi services. The company's stock has traded around $13 per share, following its public debut four years ago via a SPAC merger at $10.62 per share. While initial revenue projections were missed, the long-term potential in the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market remains significant.

Certification and Commercial Milestones

Joby is making strong progress on its path to FAA certification for the S4 aircraft. The company reported being 70% complete on its side of Stage 4 of the certification program as of the second quarter of 2025. The FAA side of Stage 4 is also over 50% complete. Joby is now preparing for final assembly of the first conforming aircraft for Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing. This TIA testing is a crucial final phase before full commercial approval. The company still targets full FAA approval for U.S. commercial flights in 2026.

Internationally, Joby is also advancing its launch timeline. The company completed 21 full-transition flights in Dubai during the summer of 2025. This testing validates the aircraft's readiness in challenging, high-temperature conditions. The first passenger service in Dubai is targeted for 2026.

Strategic Partnerships and Market Access

Joby's strategy is bolstered by major corporate and government backing. The company holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. Two aircraft have been delivered so far, and two more are scheduled for MacDill Air Force Base in 2025. This work provides early operational experience and revenue.

Airline and Mobility Integration

The Delta Air Lines partnership is central to Joby's commercial strategy. Delta plans to integrate Joby’s S4 air taxi flights into its travel experience. This service aims to offer home-to-airport transportation in initial launch markets. New York and Los Angeles are the first cities targeted for this service. The airline announced at CES 2025 that its new digital concierge service will connect with Joby’s air taxi service. This integration leverages the acquisition of Uber’s Elevate division in 2020 and Blade’s passenger helicopter-hailing service in August 2025. These moves secure key infrastructure and customer access for future Urban Air Mobility operations.

The Long-Term Revenue Opportunity

Industry analysis points to massive long-term growth for the eVTOL sector. Eve Air Mobility's Global Market Outlook suggests a global fleet of 30,000 eVTOLs by 2045. This fleet could transport three billion passengers globally. The total market revenue could reach $280 billion by that time. This growth is predicated on eVTOLs replacing traditional helicopters for short-range travel.

• S4 Aircraft Advantage: The S4 can travel up to 150 miles at 200 mph, outperforming a key competitor's range and speed. The S4 uses tilt-rotor propellers for better energy efficiency.
• Scaling Production: Joby is expanding its Marina, California, facility to produce 24 aircraft per year. A new facility in Dayton, Ohio, is being developed to eventually produce up to 500 aircraft annually.

Analysts estimate the S4 cost at about $1.3 million per aircraft. Capturing a third of the projected 2045 market, or selling 10,000 aircraft yearly, could generate $13 billion in annual revenue. Even at a lower price of $1 million per eVTOL, this still represents $10 billion in yearly revenue. If Joby achieves this revenue and maintains a 13-times-sales valuation, its market capitalization could reach $130 billion. This represents a potential ten-fold increase from its current valuation, positioning Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock as a high-risk, high-reward long-term investment in the future of commercial aviation news. For more on the industry, visit flying.flights.

Risks and Challenges: The realization of this market potential hinges on two major factors: FAA certification and the ability to scale manufacturing. Delays in regulatory approval or production could significantly impact the company's timeline and financial outlook.