Global SAF Output Doubles to Record High, But Is Aviation's Net-Zero Goal at Risk?

The global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) reached a new record high in 2025. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that global SAF output doubled. Production is projected to hit 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) for the year. This substantial increase is a direct result of rising demand from major airlines. It is also driven by new government incentives and regulatory mandates.

However, this record volume still represents a small fraction of the industry's needs. The 1.9 Mt of global SAF output accounts for only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption. This highlights a significant challenge. The aviation net-zero targets for 2050 remain distant without a massive acceleration in production capacity.

The Production and Policy Gap

IATA's latest IATA SAF estimates show progress but also slowing momentum. The 2025 forecast of 1.9 Mt was a downward revision from earlier projections. Industry leaders cite a lack of consistent SAF policy support as a primary issue. Poorly designed mandates have reportedly stalled growth in the fledgling SAF industry.

The Cost Barrier

SAF's high cost remains a major obstacle for commercial aviation decarbonization. SAF is currently priced two to five times higher than conventional fossil-based jet fuel. This SAF cost premium is expected to add an extra $3.6 billion to airlines' fuel bills in 2025 alone. This financial burden is particularly challenging for smaller airlines operating on thin margins.

Regulatory Drivers

Government regulation is a key driver for current SAF demand. The European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation is a major factor. This regulation mandates a gradual increase in SAF usage. It requires aviation fuel suppliers to include a 2% SAF blend starting in 2025. The United Kingdom's JetZero strategy also focuses on mandated SAF adoption. These SAF blending mandates provide investment certainty. However, IATA argues that compliance costs are too high without better incentives for producers.

Scaling Up Production Pathways

To meet the 2050 net-zero goal, the industry needs massive infrastructure investment. IATA estimates that thousands of new renewable fuel plants are necessary. Redirecting current fossil fuel subsidies could help fund this transition. The financial investment needed for SAF is significantly lower than that required to scale wind and solar energy.

• Diversify Feedstocks: The industry relies heavily on Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA). This pathway uses feedstocks like used cooking oil. Investment in alternative pathways is crucial. Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) can utilize agricultural and biological waste.
• Co-Processing: Increasing co-processing in existing refineries is a short-term strategy. Traditional refineries can blend up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks. This requires minimal new infrastructure investment.

Industry Impact and Outlook

The record global SAF output is encouraging. It shows that airlines are committed to purchasing the fuel. However, the current pace is too slow to achieve the aviation net-zero targets. The jet fuel consumption percentage must increase dramatically. Policymakers, investors, and the energy sector must collaborate. They must create a stable policy environment to support rapid SAF expansion. This will ensure aviation plays its part in the global energy transition. Without stronger government action, the industry risks falling short of its climate commitments.

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