Is Aviation's Green Fuel Future at Risk as IATA Warns of SAF Slowdown?

January 11, 2026 at 01:36 AM•3 min read

IATA warns that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) growth is losing momentum, despite doubling to 1.9 Mt in 2025, due to poorly designed mandates and high costs.

Key Points

1SAF production is expected to double to 1.9 Mt in 2025, but this is a downward revision from earlier IATA forecasts.
2IATA warns that growth will slow significantly in 2026, reaching only 2.4 Mt, due to 'poorly designed mandates' in the EU and UK.
3High costs are a major barrier, with airlines paying up to five times the price of conventional jet fuel in mandated markets.
4The supply shortfall may force many airlines to reevaluate their voluntary 2030 SAF usage commitments.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued a strong warning. The SAF production growth rate is losing momentum. This slowdown threatens the aviation industry's long-term decarbonization goals. While production is doubling, the pace is insufficient for future needs. The association blamed poor policy design for stalling the industry's progress.

SAF Production Slowdown

Global output of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is increasing. Production is expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025. This figure nearly doubles the 1 Mt produced in 2024. However, this 2025 estimate is a downward revision from earlier forecasts. The growth is projected to slow further in 2026. Production is only expected to reach 2.4 Mt next year. This slow trajectory is a major concern for the sector.

SAF will account for only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption in 2025. This share will rise to just 0.8% in 2026. This marginal increase highlights the scale of the challenge. The industry must meet its net-zero emissions goal by 2050.

Policy and Cost Challenges

IATA Director General Willie Walsh criticized current policy frameworks. He stated that "poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry." Specifically, the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation and UK mandates were cited. These policies have not spurred the necessary investment in the fuel supply chain.

The cost of SAF remains a significant barrier. SAF prices exceed fossil jet fuel by a factor of two. This cost can be up to five times higher in mandated markets. This price difference is being passed directly to airlines. Airlines paid a cumulative premium of $2.9 billion for SAF in 2025. The total SAF premium is expected to add $3.6 billion to fuel costs in 2025. This financial burden is a major headwind for the global aviation fuel market. Regulators like EASA must work with airlines on incentives.

Industry Commitments at Risk

The lack of sufficient SAF supply has direct consequences. Many airlines have made ambitious 2030 SAF commitments. These targets may now be impossible to meet. Mr. Walsh warned that many airlines may be forced to reevaluate their goals. The fuel is simply not being produced in the required volumes. This affects the entire commercial aviation news landscape. Major manufacturers like Airbus rely on SAF scalability for their own climate goals.

IATA stresses that the issue is policy-driven, not technological. The focus must shift from mandates to production incentives. This is essential to fully utilize installed SAF capacities. Without a course correction, the momentum for aviation decarbonization will continue to fall short. For more updates on this critical topic, visit our commercial aviation news section. [https://flying.flights]