IATA: SAF Output Doubled in 2025, But Mandates Stall Decarbonisation Progress

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production doubled in 2025. This is according to new estimates from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The output is expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes (2.4 billion liters) this year. This is a significant increase from 1 million tonnes in 2024.

Despite this growth, the overall share remains very small. SAF will account for just 0.6 per cent of total global jet fuel consumption in 2025. This share is projected to rise to 0.8 per cent in 2026. Production growth is also expected to slow next year, rising to 2.4 million tonnes.

IATA noted that the 2025 output estimate is a downward revision. The association cited a lack of policy support for this change. They argue this prevents full use of installed SAF capacity.

Costs and Policy Failures

The price premium for SAF is creating a major financial burden. The premium is expected to add $3.6 billion to airline fuel costs in 2025. SAF prices are roughly double that of fossil jet fuel. In markets with mandates, prices can be up to five times higher.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh was sharply critical of current policy. He stated that "SAF production growth fell short of expectations." He blamed "poorly designed mandates" for stalling the industry.

"If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park," Walsh said. He urged regulators to instead design incentives that work.

The Impact of European Mandates

IATA specifically criticized mandates in the European Union and the United Kingdom. They argue these policies have failed to boost production. They have also significantly increased aviation fuel costs for airlines.

The ReFuelEU Aviation framework in Europe has driven costs higher. This is due to limited SAF capacity and oligopolistic supply chains. Fuel suppliers have widened profit margins. Airlines are paying up to five times the price of conventional jet fuel. They are paying double the market price of SAF itself.

• The UK's SAF mandate has also caused price spikes.
• Airlines paid a cumulative premium of $2.9 billion for the limited 2025 supply.
• Of this, $1.4 billion reflects the standard SAF price premium.

Walsh noted that Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets. This slows investment and undermines efforts to scale sustainable aviation fuel production.

Threat to Climate Commitments

The failure to accelerate SAF production capacity has serious consequences. It will force many carriers to review their airline decarbonisation targets.

"Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10 per cent SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments," Walsh warned. He said the fuel is simply not being produced in sufficient amounts.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president for sustainability and chief economist, stressed the need for a course correction. "Given the low SAF production volumes, it is evident that current policies are not having the desired effect," she stated.

Regulators must ensure the long-term viability of SAF production. Scaling up is necessary so that costs can come down.

Caution on e-SAF

IATA cautioned against repeating these policy mistakes with synthetic fuels. Mandates for e-SAF (synthetic aviation fuels) are approaching. They are set for the UK in 2028 and the EU in 2030.

E-SAF already faces a much higher cost base. It could be up to 12 times the price of conventional jet fuel. Without strong production incentives, supply will fall short. Compliance costs could reach €29 billion by 2032 if targets are missed.

Owens Thomsen called it "outrageous to repeat the same mistakes with e-SAF mandates."

This news is crucial for understanding the challenges facing the industry's net-zero goal. Aviation stakeholders, including manufacturers like Airbus and regulators like EASA, must address these policy issues. You can find more commercial aviation news on [flying.flights].