Leaked Slides Reveal United's Strategy to Dominate Chicago O'Hare Hub

Leaked internal documents from United Airlines (UA) have revealed an aggressive strategy to solidify its dominance at its home hub, Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), while publicly challenging the financial viability of rival American Airlines' (AA) operation there. The slides, which reportedly mock American's hub as "temporary," escalate an already intense rivalry for control of gates, routes, and passengers at one of the world's busiest airports.

The conflict represents a high-stakes battle for market share, where gate allocation is directly tied to operational tempo. The core of the dispute centers on United's public claims regarding American's financial performance at ORD and a corresponding increase in flight capacity by both carriers. This strategy appears designed to pressure American financially and secure a long-term strategic advantage through O'Hare's gate management policies.

A War of Words and Numbers

The competition intensified during United's Q4 2025 earnings call, where CEO Scott Kirby made bold claims about the financial disparity between the two hubs. Kirby alleged that American Airlines lost approximately $500 million at its O'Hare operation in 2025, while United's hub generated a profit of about $500 million. He further projected American's losses at ORD could reach $1 billion in 2026. "In 2026 we are drawing a line in the sand," Kirby stated. "We're not going to allow them to win a single gate at our expense."

American Airlines has forcefully refuted these figures. In a public statement, the carrier called the claims "inconsistent" and "unsubstantiated." American Airlines CEO Robert Isom defended his airline's position, stating, "Chicago can support two hub carriers, it's been doing it forever... that's a hub that will be over 500 departures, and we have a just an incredible base of customers that are waiting for us to really get back in the marketplace."

According to aviation industry analysis for the period of February 2023 to January 2024, United's mainline market share at O'Hare stood at 40.58%, significantly ahead of American's 22.76%. Including its regional subsidiary Envoy, American's total share is approximately 27.49%.

The Battle for Gates and Capacity

The strategic maneuvering is heavily influenced by the O'Hare Gate Use and Lease Agreement (2018), administered by the Chicago Department of Aviation (CDA). This agreement includes a critical 'use-it-or-lose-it' provision that reallocates gates based on an airline's flight activity in the preceding year. This rule incentivizes airlines to maximize flight operations to maintain or expand their gate footprint.

In response, both airlines are planning significant capacity increases. United, which currently controls 97 gates, plans to operate up to 750 daily flights from O'Hare during the summer of 2026. American, with 65 gates, plans to counter with over 500 daily departures. This surge in flights is a direct tactic to satisfy the gate utilization requirements, even if it potentially impacts the profitability of certain routes.

While United claims a 22-point lead with Chicago-originating passengers and a 38-point lead with "brand loyal business customers," American is also reporting positive metrics. The airline added 29 new destinations from O'Hare in 2025 and reported a 20% year-over-year increase in AAdvantage loyalty program enrollments in the Chicago area, according to an American Airlines earnings call.

What Comes Next

The upcoming summer 2026 travel season will be a critical test for both carriers. The significant increase in flight operations will demonstrate which airline can sustainably manage the added capacity while maintaining operational reliability and financial performance. The results of this period will be closely watched by the CDA, as the flight activity data will directly inform gate reallocations for the following year. The outcome of this high-stakes competition could reshape the competitive landscape at O'Hare for years to come, potentially forcing one of the carriers to reconsider its long-term hub strategy.

Why This Matters

In my view, this public and aggressive campaign by United is more than just typical airline rivalry; it's a calculated effort to potentially de-hub a major competitor from a fortress hub. The use of an earnings call—traditionally a forum for investors—as a tool for competitive psychological warfare is a notable evolution in industry tactics. For travelers and aviation professionals, the immediate result is more flight options out of Chicago, but the long-term consequences could include reduced competition and altered network maps depending on who prevails in this battle for O'Hare.

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