Why is Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Ramping Up Globally?

The commercial aviation decarbonization effort is accelerating the global SAF market. Airlines are urgently seeking ways to reduce carbon emissions to meet ambitious industry targets. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the most critical tool available today. It is expected to provide about 65% of the emission reductions needed by 2050. This high demand is pushing the development of new SAF production facilities worldwide.

Current Production and Capacity

Global SAF production is still a small fraction of overall jet fuel use. In 2024, production reached approximately 1 million tonnes (Mt). This volume accounted for only 0.3% of the world’s jet fuel usage. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects production to reach 1.9 Mt in 2025. This figure represents a slight downward revision from earlier forecasts. Growth is projected to slow slightly in 2026, reaching 2.4 Mt.

Industry data tracks over 211 SAF production facilities and projects globally. These projects are in various stages of development. The total project pipeline could reach 33.6 million tons (Mt) by 2030.

Regulatory Drivers and Mandates

Government mandates are the primary force driving this capacity expansion. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to a global framework. This framework aims for a 5% emissions reduction by 2030 through SAF use.

In Europe, the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation is a key driver. It mandates that fuel suppliers must include 2% SAF by 2025. This requirement will increase progressively to 70% by 2050. The United Kingdom also has a mandate starting at 2% in 2025. It will rise to 10% by 2030.

Asia-Pacific countries are also setting targets. India has an indicative blending target of 1% by 2027. Singapore’s Sustainable Air Hub Blueprint includes a net-zero goal by 2050. These policies signal long-term demand for alternative jet fuel.

The Cost and Feedstock Challenge

Despite the production ramp-up, significant challenges remain. SAF is currently three to ten times more expensive than conventional jet fuel. In mandated markets, the cost can be up to five times higher. This high price premium is expected to add a $3.6 billion burden to airlines in 2025.

IATA has criticized the design of some mandates. Director General Willie Walsh stated that poorly designed policies slow progress. They also increase prices due to limited supply and compliance fees.

Diversifying the Feedstock Supply Chain

Most current production uses the HEFA pathway. This process converts fats, oils, and greases (FOGs), such as used cooking oil (UCO). Relying heavily on UCO creates a feedstock supply chain challenge. Competition for UCO with other sectors is rising.

Future aviation sustainability depends on diversifying production methods. This includes scaling up Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technologies. The development of synthetic fuels, or Power-to-Liquids (PtL), is also crucial. PtL is expected to be mandated in the EU starting in 2030.

Major manufacturers like Airbus continue to test new aircraft. These tests validate the use of 100% SAF. This confirms the fuel's technical viability. However, the commercial scale-up requires massive investment. The aviation industry's airline net-zero goals depend on policy support. Governments must shift from mandates alone to meaningful production incentives. This will help bridge the cost gap and secure the necessary feedstock supply chain for the future. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) continues to oversee the safety and certification of new SAF pathways.

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